Farmers and ranchers across the U.S. are bracing for the economic impact of new tariffs imposed on goods coming from Mexico, Canada, and China. While these tariffs are designed to protect American industries, the reality is they could result in billions of dollars in losses for our farmers and ranchers, and higher prices for everyday consumers. As these countries retaliate, it’s expected that produce, meat, and other agricultural goods will see price increases in the short term.
However, some of the consequences may not be immediately evident. For instance, the effects on farmers might not be fully realized until the next harvest season, and while some items could become more expensive, there’s a chance certain goods could become cheaper if exports falter. Despite the pressure, President Trump has indicated that he is committed to supporting U.S. farmers, as he did during the trade war with China in his first term. He has already suggested that farmers may receive aid to make up for the financial losses these tariffs might cause, though specifics have yet to be laid out.
In his recent address to Congress, President Trump reiterated his support for farmers, claiming that foreign agricultural imports harm American agriculture. His comments signal that while he is focused on long-term gains for U.S. agriculture, the short-term fallout could be painful. If farmers begin holding back on investments in equipment or supplies, or if consumers start cutting back on spending due to higher grocery bills, the overall economy could suffer. As agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor pointed out, Americans’ willingness to spend on non-essential goods like cars and appliances is closely tied to the stability of the economy.
For farmers, many of whom have already seen crop prices dip due to the tariffs, the situation is difficult. Corn and soybean prices, for instance, have dropped by 10% since the tariffs were announced. As economist Joe Janzen pointed out, there is simply no domestic market large enough to absorb the volume of crops we export, so this loss in foreign demand is a significant blow. Furthermore, since much of our fertilizer comes from Canada, the increased cost of potash could drive up the price of growing crops even further.
On the meat front, tariffs on beef and poultry are expected to hit consumers in the form of higher grocery bills. A significant amount of the lean beef used in American hamburgers is imported from Canada and Mexico, meaning that as those costs rise, ground beef prices are likely to follow. While there is potential for a short-term drop in some meat prices—like hams, due to a decline in exports to Mexico—the overall impact on American producers is expected to be negative, particularly for those relying on exports to foreign markets.
Livestock producers may see some relief from lower feed costs, but the broader picture remains bleak. While U.S. farmers are accustomed to weathering tough times, the uncertainty around tariffs and their long-term effects is worrisome. Farmers are already feeling the strain, as evidenced by the concerns voiced by figures like Steve Kuiper of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, who pointed out that big-ticket equipment sales are slowing down due to farmers’ reluctance to invest.
At the same time, many farmers are taking steps to protect themselves. Some, like Katy Rogers of an organic farm in Indianapolis, are stockpiling supplies in anticipation of rising prices. While they’re hopeful that these tariffs will eventually lead to fairer trade practices, they worry that the ongoing uncertainty could end up harming their livelihoods in the short term.
As President Trump threatens more tariffs in the near future, farmers are understandably anxious. Yet, there are still potential opportunities for American farmers to shift exports to new markets, particularly in places like India. But with trade relations already strained, it’s unclear how long these disruptions will last or how much further prices could climb. If tariffs continue, they could drive up food prices for American consumers, including those in Trump’s voter base, who have long voiced concerns over inflation.
While aid payments could soften the blow for farmers, as they did during the trade war with China, the prospect of long-term tariffs could ultimately hurt both farmers and consumers. As agricultural trade expert Timothy Wise warns, these measures might not be sustainable and could ultimately harm the very people they were intended to help.