New national polling data is making headlines this week — and critics of President Donald Trump are seizing on the numbers.
During a CNN segment, political data analyst Harry Enten pointed to four major polls that show Trump’s approval rating at what he described as a “second-term low.”
But as seasoned voters know, polling numbers are only part of the story.
Let’s break down what the data says — and what it might really mean.
What the Latest Trump Approval Polls Show
According to Enten, four well-known polling organizations — AP-NORC, NBC News, Yahoo-YouGov, and Quinnipiac University — currently show President Trump with net negative approval ratings ranging from 19 to 26 points underwater.
In simple terms:
- More respondents say they disapprove of the president’s performance than approve.
- These figures represent the lowest readings of his second term from those particular pollsters.
Enten even suggested there may not be a clear “floor” to the president’s approval numbers in this cycle.
However, experienced political observers understand that approval ratings fluctuate — especially during intense media cycles or contentious legislative debates.
How Does This Compare to Joe Biden?
CNN anchor Kate Bolduan asked how Trump’s current standing compares to former President Joe Biden at a similar point in office.
Enten argued that Trump’s numbers currently trail Biden’s at the same stage and are also lower than Trump’s own first-term approval ratings.
But here’s where context matters.
Biden also experienced significant drops in approval tied to inflation concerns, border policy debates, and international crises. Yet political momentum shifted dramatically in subsequent election cycles.
Poll numbers in February do not automatically determine outcomes in November.
The Independent Voter Challenge
Perhaps the most notable takeaway from the CNN discussion was Trump’s approval among independent voters.
Enten highlighted that Trump’s net approval among independents is significantly more negative now than at the same time in his first term.
Why does this matter?
Independent voters often determine:
- Midterm election outcomes
- Swing state results
- Congressional control
Still, independent voter sentiment can change quickly depending on:
- Economic growth
- Energy prices
- Border security developments
- International stability
History shows that political winds can shift rapidly when voters feel economic improvement or stronger national confidence.
Do Approval Ratings Predict Election Results?
This is where the bigger debate begins.
Over the last decade, national polling has faced growing scrutiny. Many surveys underestimated Trump’s support in previous cycles, particularly among working-class and rural voters.
Key realities to remember:
- Approval ratings are snapshots — not forecasts.
- Enthusiasm and turnout often matter more.
- Policy wins can quickly reshape public opinion.
- Media coverage can influence short-term perceptions.
President Trump has repeatedly demonstrated resilience under intense scrutiny. His political comeback alone surprised many analysts who once declared his career finished.
What Comes Next?
With the 2026 midterms on the horizon and political momentum building nationwide, the question isn’t just whether Trump’s approval is down today.
The real question is:
Will economic performance, border policy, and national security developments shift voter attitudes in the months ahead?
Political history suggests it’s far too early to draw final conclusions.
Final Takeaway
The latest polling presents challenges for the White House — particularly among independents. But elections are rarely decided by early approval ratings alone.
As always in American politics, momentum can change quickly.
And voters over 50 — who consistently turn out at the highest rates — will once again play a decisive role.
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