Senate Republicans are cautioning New York Judge Juan Merchan against imposing a prison or house arrest sentence on former President Trump, as such actions could disrupt his ability to campaign as the likely GOP nominee for the upcoming November election.
Trump is facing 34 felony counts related to falsifying business documents, and while his appeals process could extend for months, legal experts are skeptical that the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court will intervene on his behalf. Consequently, the decision largely rests with Judge Merchan, who has received positive reviews for his judicious handling of the case. Merchan has several sentencing options, including prison, house arrest, probation, or community service, and is scheduled to deliver the sentence on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Republican senators acknowledge that a prison sentence for Trump, classified under a class E felony, would be atypical, with most experts predicting he would remain free during the appeal process. Nevertheless, there is concern about Merchan’s discretion and the perception that the trial was biased against Trump’s legal team.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has labeled the potential incarceration of Trump as a “further abuse of power,” expressing alarm over the perceived politicization of judicial institutions. He emphasized that historically, entities like the FBI, the Department of Justice, and the courts were seen as apolitical, a perception he feels has deteriorated.
Republican senators warn that any sentence restricting Trump’s ability to campaign could erode voter confidence in the 2024 election’s fairness. While it is expected that Merchan will avoid such a move right before the convention, some GOP members remain wary.
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) criticized Merchan’s handling of the case, deeming any severe sentence as unfair and potentially unconstitutional. He believes such a decision would only galvanize Trump’s supporters further. Similarly, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who initially doubted Trump’s conviction, is now uncertain about the possibility of Trump being imprisoned before Election Day. Tillis emphasized that any restrictive sentence should be consistent with similar cases to avoid appearing politically motivated.
Norm Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, analyzed that only 10% of first-degree business falsification cases in New York result in imprisonment, suggesting a tough sentence for Trump would be unusual. However, Judge Merchan is known for his stringent stance on white-collar crimes.
Trump has warned that imprisoning or confining him would push public sentiment to a “breaking point,” and some Republicans, like Tillis, argue that a harsh sentence might paradoxically bolster Trump’s political support by portraying him as a victim of judicial overreach.
Some Republican senators, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), believe the Supreme Court might ultimately overturn any conviction. However, legal scholars like Ilya Somin of George Mason University and Barbara McQuade from the University of Michigan argue that the Supreme Court is unlikely to intervene in a state criminal matter without clear federal issues at play. They predict that Trump must exhaust his appeals in the New York state courts before any potential federal intervention, a process that could extend beyond the election.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) suggests the Supreme Court should prevent what he describes as interference in the election by a “kangaroo court” in New York. Similarly, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) believes the Supreme Court might need to step in if appeals drag out past the election, though he notes that a prison sentence is improbable given Trump’s first-time offender status. Grassley also speculated that being imprisoned could paradoxically enhance Trump’s re-election chances by portraying him as a martyr to his supporters.