In an unexpected twist, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is now trailing former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin in Alaska—a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election for 60 years. The last time a Democrat won Alaska was in 1964, when President Lyndon B. Johnson secured a victory. Since then, the GOP has consistently carried the state, often with commanding double-digit leads.
However, Trump’s dominance in Alaska has shown signs of waning. In the 2016 election, Trump won Alaska by nearly 15 points, but his lead decreased to 10 points in 2020 against Joe Biden. The trend continued in the 2022 midterm elections, where Trump-endorsed candidates were defeated. Notably, Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and anti-Trump Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won their races despite Trump’s active support for their opponents. This was influenced in part by Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, allowing voters to rank multiple candidates, which may have shifted the outcomes.
Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research, conducted between September 11 and 12, shows Harris trailing Trump by just 5 points among likely voters. Harris has 42 percent support, while Trump holds 47 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently endorsed Trump, has garnered 5 percent of the vote, with 6 percent of respondents still undecided. The poll also revealed that 67 percent of respondents had watched the recent debate between Harris and Trump, with 52 percent believing Harris performed better.
The poll, which surveyed 1,254 likely voters, did not provide details on the margin of error. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system could play a pivotal role, as Kennedy Jr.’s supporters might list Harris or Trump as their second choice. This system allows votes to be redistributed if a candidate is eliminated in the first round, which could impact the final results.
Polling expert Nate Silver, known for his work with FiveThirtyEight, has suggested that his model has been unusually optimistic about Harris’ chances in Alaska. While the state holds only three electoral votes, its significance is heightened by its position in the Voter Power Index, reflecting the impact of each marginal vote.
On the national stage, Harris appears to have a slight edge over Trump, with recent averages showing her at 48.3 percent compared to Trump’s 46.2 percent. In critical swing states, Harris leads narrowly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, with ties in North Carolina and Nevada. These margins indicate a tight race across the country as both candidates vie for crucial electoral support.