As of Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in six national aggregate polls, reflecting a highly competitive 2024 U.S. presidential race.
Since President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race on July 21, Harris has stepped into the campaign spotlight and quickly gained substantial backing from the Democratic Party. The latest national aggregate polls show her ahead of Trump by margins ranging from just 0.5 to 2.5 percentage points.
Aggregate polls are regularly updated with new data, causing the averages to shift in real time. Here are the most recent figures as of Saturday afternoon:
RealClearPolitics shows Harris with a slight edge of 0.5 percentage points, leading Trump 47.6% to 47.1%. The New York Times’ aggregate poll also shows Harris in front by 1 percentage point, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. When factoring in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris’s lead widens to 2 percentage points, with Harris at 45%, Trump at 43%, and Kennedy at 5%.
Race to the WH’s aggregate poll indicates Harris leading by 1.6 percentage points, with 48.3% compared to Trump’s 46.7%. When third-party candidates are included, Harris’s support drops slightly to 45.7%, Trump’s to 43.5%, Kennedy’s to 5.4%, and Cornel West’s to 0.5%.
FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading by 2 percentage points, 45.6% to Trump’s 43.5%, with Kennedy at 5.1%. Similarly, 270toWin also reports a 2-percentage point margin, with Harris receiving 47.5% and Trump 45.5%. The Silver Bulletin, managed by statistician Nate Silver, reports Harris with the largest margin, 2.5 percentage points ahead with 46.5% compared to Trump’s 44%.
On the other hand, The Hill presents a different picture, showing Harris trailing Trump by 0.2 percentage points, with Trump at 47.4% and Harris at 47.2%.
While national aggregate polls provide a broad view of voter sentiment, the presidential race is ultimately decided by individual states and the Electoral College. Candidates must accumulate 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, a goal that relies heavily on victories in key battleground states rather than just national popular vote totals.
In crucial swing states, the race remains extremely tight. In Wisconsin, which holds 10 Electoral College votes, Harris leads with The Hill’s state aggregate showing her at 48.9% to Trump’s 47.4%, while FiveThirtyEight has her at 46.7% versus Trump’s 44.4%. In Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, The Hill reports Trump ahead by 1 percentage point, 48% to Harris’s 47%. However, The New York Times shows a deadlock in Pennsylvania with both candidates at 48%, though it had Trump leading by 2 percentage points as of yesterday.