Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee for 2024, is showing notable improvements in his appeal to Hispanic voters compared to the 2020 election. According to recent polling data from Reuters/Ipsos, Trump currently enjoys a 42% to 37% edge over Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris on the issue of immigration policy. This marks a significant shift in support from Hispanic voters.
Overall, Trump’s advantage on immigration extends to the broader electorate as well, where he leads Harris 46% to 36% on this crucial issue. However, the same poll indicates that Hispanic voters lean toward Harris on other issues such as health care and climate change, with Harris leading by 18 and 23 points respectively. On economic matters, though, the trend is more favorable for Trump, who is preferred over Harris by 45% to 36% among the general voting population.
Interestingly, Trump’s standing among Hispanic voters on economic issues shows a tie, with each candidate receiving 39% support from this demographic. This marks a noticeable improvement from earlier in the year, particularly since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Back in May, Biden had a four-point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters regarding economic issues.
The shift in Hispanic support is even more pronounced when considering the 2020 election results. In that election, Biden won Hispanic voters by a 21-point margin. A 2020 Pew Research analysis and a Fox News Voter Analysis had shown Biden leading with a substantial 63% to Trump’s 35% among Hispanic voters.
As of 2022, Hispanic voters comprised approximately 14% of the U.S. voting-age population, up from 9% in the earlier 2005-2009 period. Chuck Rocha, a Democrat strategist, highlights the dynamic nature of the Hispanic vote, noting its significant potential for influencing election outcomes. Republican strategist Giancarlo Sopo, who previously worked on Trump’s outreach to Hispanic voters, acknowledges that Trump’s ability to compete evenly with Harris on the economy represents a substantial achievement given the historical Democratic advantage in this demographic.
The evolving Hispanic voter landscape suggests that Trump’s 2024 campaign could see considerable gains compared to his previous performance.