The presidential race, which once seemed firmly in former President Trump’s grasp, has evolved into a highly competitive contest as Vice President Kamala Harris gains ground, particularly following her recent selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
While the impact of Walz’s addition to Harris’s ticket remains uncertain, there is no denying that Harris has experienced a notable boost in polling since President Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the race and subsequent endorsement of her candidacy.
Recent national polls tracked by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Harris and Trump in a near deadlock, with Trump narrowly leading at 47.1% compared to Harris’s 47%. This marks a significant shift from earlier in the race when Trump enjoyed a more comfortable lead of over 6 points. The close margin reflects a realignment of the race since Biden’s exit.
In addition to the national polling averages, Harris has recently edged out Trump in Nate Silver’s electoral forecast, which had previously shown Trump leading both Biden and Harris. Silver now considers the race a “toss-up,” reflecting a dramatic change in the electoral landscape. This shift is evident in the polling data, which shows a movement in favor of Harris and the Democrats in several key states.
For instance, in North Carolina, a traditionally Republican stronghold, the polling shift has been striking. Once showing Trump with a 10-point lead, the gap has now narrowed to just 3 points. This state has been a persistent target for Democrats since Obama’s narrow victory in 2008, and Harris’s recent momentum has renewed hope for a potential win here. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has voiced optimism about Harris’s ability to turn the state blue.
Polling in other pivotal states also reveals a trend toward Harris. Although Trump maintains leads in most battleground states, the margins have narrowed. In Nevada, Trump’s lead has decreased from 9 points to a mere 3. Polls from Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan show a narrowing gap of 2, 4, and 3 points, respectively, in favor of Harris.
Recent polling data further underscores Harris’s improved standing. A CBS News/YouGov poll found Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point nationally and tied at 50% in key battleground states. Enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged, with 85% now indicating they plan to vote this fall, up from 81% the previous month. Additionally, a Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading Trump by 4 points, marking the largest advantage for a Democratic candidate in almost a year.
Harris also performs better than Biden in polls that include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., holding a narrow lead in these three-way matchups. This suggests that Harris’s campaign is gaining traction, particularly among independent voters and younger demographics, areas where Biden had previously underperformed.
As the race tightens, both candidates face the challenge of mobilizing their supporters and capitalizing on any shifts in voter sentiment. Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio anticipates that Harris may experience a temporary boost due to the excitement surrounding her candidacy, but the true impact of this “honeymoon period” remains to be seen. As the campaign intensifies, both candidates will need to navigate a fiercely competitive environment heading into the fall.