Certain GOP pollsters have suggested that former President Donald Trump is well on his way to securing victory in the Republican presidential primary. According to the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll, Trump has garnered the support of a majority, reaching 50% among likely voters. This marks a substantial increase from his 45% support in the September edition of the Rasmussen poll.
According to Newsmax, the current GOP primary standings are as follows:
- Trump: 50%
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis: 12%
- Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley: 9%
- Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 5%
- Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
- Former Vice President Mike Pence: 3%
- Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina: 2%
- Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson: 1%
- North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum: 0%
- Undecided: 14%
Notably, Mike Pence has officially withdrawn from the race, stating that “it is not my time.”
When the nationwide poll is expanded to include Democrat and third-party voters who participate in open primaries, the other candidates gain some support against Trump. The Rasmussen Reports analysis suggests that in states with open primaries, where voters can choose which primary to participate in regardless of party registration, Trump’s advantage may be diluted by potential crossover votes. While Trump enjoys 63% of the Republican vote, he is supported by only 33% of Democrats and 46% of unaffiliated voters who plan to participate in their state’s 2024 GOP primaries. Several of Trump’s primary rivals, including DeSantis, Haley, and Christie, draw a significant share of their support from Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
The Rasmussen Reports conducted surveys from October 26 to 31 and November 1 to 2, 2023, involving 1,344 likely Republican primary voters and 2,015 likely U.S. primary voters. The margin of error for GOP primary voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.