A growing number of American business leaders are sounding the alarm as confidence in the U.S. economy plunges under President Donald Trump’s trade and foreign policy agenda.
According to JPMorgan Chase’s latest Business Leaders Outlook Survey, optimism has been cut in half since January—dropping from 65% to just 32% in June. The sharp decline reflects mounting fears of a 2025 recession, with 25% of business leaders now expecting a downturn this year.
Tariffs, Policy Chaos, and Global Conflict Fuel Uncertainty
At the heart of the anxiety: Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, ongoing trade disputes, and rising geopolitical instability. These policies have rattled markets, driven up business costs, and left small and mid-sized businesses unsure of what’s coming next.
While the administration has paused some reciprocal tariffs and temporarily eased tensions with China, many business owners remain on edge. The recent military conflict between Israel and Iran—and America’s involvement—only adds to the pressure.
One economist warned the situation could lead to “another supply shock” for the U.S., threatening fuel prices, inflation, and consumer spending.
Middle Market Businesses Put Plans on Hold
JPMorgan surveyed over 700 U.S. executives from mid-sized companies earning between $20 million and $500 million annually. The results show a cautious business climate.
- 44% said they’ve delayed growth plans this year
- 74% cited “policy uncertainty” as the top reason
- 41% blamed tariffs
- 55% cited general economic instability
These concerns echo the Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index, which recently saw its steepest drop in nearly 50 years—down 26 points to 34. This marks a clear shift into pessimistic territory.
Consumer Confidence Crumbles, Recession Signals Flashing
It’s not just business leaders losing faith. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 5.4 points in June to 93.0, missing projections. Even more troubling, the Expectations Index fell below 70, a benchmark that typically signals a recession ahead.
According to Stephanie Guichard of the Conference Board, “Consumers are worried about inflation, jobs, and prices—and tariffs are a big part of that.”
As the cost of living rises, seniors and working families are feeling the squeeze. Groceries, gas, and utilities all reflect growing instability tied to trade policy and foreign conflict.
Experts Warn of More Pain Ahead
JPMorgan’s Matt Sable emphasized that businesses are operating in a state of caution:
“Uncertainty is driving a wait-and-see approach. Companies are rethinking investments and staffing plans.”
Matthew Martin from Oxford Economics added that delayed investment and slow hiring will hurt economic growth and reduce real income—further cutting into spending.
Northeastern University economist Peter Simon warned that the growing instability in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran’s oil exports, could spike prices at home.
“Inflation and recession risks are rising. When consumers fear the future, they stop buying,” he noted.
Despite Fears, Some Still See Stability
Interestingly, 78% of business leaders still expect their revenues to either hold steady or grow in 2025. But this cautious optimism hinges on whether the Trump administration can bring clarity to economic policy, stabilize trade, and reduce international tensions.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently called the U.S. economy “in solid shape,” but he also warned of “very high uncertainty” due to tariffs and global risks.
“Everyone I talk to expects inflation to rise due to trade policy,” Powell said.