Florida, once a Republican stronghold and one of President Donald Trump’s most reliable states, could be headed for a political earthquake.
A brand-new poll shows Trump-backed Congressman Byron Donalds holding a slim 8-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the 2026 governor’s race. This race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched battles in the country — and could signal whether Democrats are mounting a comeback in the Sunshine State.
Trump’s Ally Leads, But It’s Not a Lock
Donalds has surged to the front of the GOP field thanks to Trump’s powerful endorsement and Florida’s steady shift to the right over the last decade.
The poll, conducted by the AIF Center for Political Strategy, shows Donalds leading Jolly 49% to 41%, with 11% of voters still undecided. That undecided bloc will be critical, giving both campaigns plenty of room to grow before the November 2026 election.
Trump officially endorsed Donalds back in February, immediately energizing the MAGA base and cementing Donalds as the frontrunner. With Governor Ron DeSantis term-limited, and Casey DeSantis deciding not to run, Donalds has a clear path — for now.
Democrats See a Rare Opening
Democrats haven’t won a governor’s race in Florida since 1994, nor have they carried the state in a presidential election since 2012. Trump himself won Florida by a commanding 13 points in 2024, making this state central to his political legacy.
But Democrats believe this time could be different.
“Floridians are ready for something better,” Jolly posted on X, claiming that his internal numbers show him neck-and-neck with Donalds.
Jolly is a former Republican congressman who turned Democrat after becoming a fierce Trump critic. His campaign is targeting independents and disaffected Republicans who want to “end the chaos.”
Vaccine Mandate Battle Heats Up
The race took a sharp turn after Florida’s Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, announced an end to school vaccine requirements, comparing mandates to “slavery” and warning of government overreach.
A poll revealed 60% of voters oppose ending these requirements, giving Democrats a potential wedge issue.
Jolly quickly seized on the controversy, saying it proves “extremism has gone too far in Florida politics.”
This hot-button topic could drive turnout, especially among suburban voters and older Floridians concerned about public health and freedom of choice.
Trump’s Influence Remains Strong
Donalds has focused heavily on the Republican primary, where his numbers skyrocketed to 57% once voters learned of Trump’s endorsement.
Donalds posted on X:
“We must stay united. We must stay connected. We must ensure GOP victory at all levels.”
For now, Donalds is the clear favorite among conservatives, while other GOP contenders like Paul Renner and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins remain in the single digits.
Democrats Smell Blood — But Can They Win?
Jolly’s campaign is framing the race as a fight for Florida’s future.
“Republicans are in panic mode,” said Jolly strategist Mark Riddle, blasting the GOP for “chaotic leadership and outdated polling games.”
While Donalds currently leads, Democrats see a real chance to flip Florida for the first time in over a decade. If they succeed, it would shock the political world and raise serious questions about Trump’s hold on the state heading into the 2028 presidential race.
Why This Race Matters
Florida holds 30 electoral votes and has been the centerpiece of Trump’s political empire. A Democratic win here would not only weaken Trump’s influence but could reshape the national political map for years to come.
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election takes place on November 3, 2026, and all eyes will be watching to see whether Trump’s chosen candidate can hold the line — or if Democrats will pull off a historic upset.
Bottom Line
Florida has been reliably red for years, but cracks are starting to show. With Trump’s legacy on the line and Democrats rallying for a comeback, this race could be one of the most explosive showdowns of 2026.