A brand-new poll out of New York is sending a serious warning signal to Republicans — and it highlights just how deep the political problems run inside one of America’s most mismanaged blue states.
According to a Tuesday survey from the Siena Research Institute, Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 20-point advantage over GOP rising star and newly announced candidate Rep. Elise Stefanik. The poll shows Hochul at 52%, while Stefanik stands at 32% among registered voters.
With nearly a year until Election Day, the numbers may shift — but this early snapshot shows the GOP faces a major challenge in the Empire State.
Voters Aren’t Happy With Hochul — Even as She Leads
Despite her lead, Hochul is far from secure. The poll reveals:
- Only 42% say they would definitely reelect Hochul
- 48% say they want someone else
- 10% remain undecided
For an incumbent Democrat in a heavily blue state, these numbers are troubling. They reflect a growing frustration with New York’s crime crisis, sky-high taxes, economic decline, and the ongoing exodus of families fleeing to red states.
Even voters who prefer Hochul over Stefanik are clearly not enthusiastic about keeping the governor in power.
Hochul Still Dominates the Democrat Primary
Siena also tested a hypothetical Democratic primary — and Hochul remains firmly in control.
She leads Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 56% to 16%, with strong support among:
- Liberals
- Moderates
- Upstate Democrats
- Downstate Democrats
- Men and women
Even with her slipping job approval, Hochul maintains a commanding hold on her party’s base.
Stefanik Shows Real Momentum With the GOP and Independents
While Hochul holds statewide advantages today, the poll also shows clear movement in Stefanik’s direction — especially where Republicans need it most.
- Stefanik’s support among Republican voters has grown by 11 points
- Her numbers among independent voters have improved by 14 points
That kind of momentum — less than two weeks after launching her campaign — suggests the race could tighten significantly as 2025 approaches.
For conservatives frustrated with one-party Democrat control, Stefanik’s rise is one of the few bright spots in the poll.
Regional Breakdown Exposes Hochul’s Weakness
Hochul’s support is heavily concentrated in the Democrat-dominated New York City metro area. According to the poll:
- NYC: Hochul +42
- Downstate Suburbs: Hochul +9
- Upstate: Hochul +3
These numbers show that outside the city, Hochul’s support collapses. Upstate New York — where crime, economic stagnation, and population loss are most pronounced — is extremely competitive.
This regional split gives Republicans a real opportunity if Stefanik continues strengthening her coalition.
New Yorkers Say the State Is Headed in the Wrong Direction
Perhaps the most critical finding:
- 45% of voters say New York is going in the wrong direction
- Just 39% believe the state is on the right track
- 16% are unsure
This wrong-track number is devastating for any sitting governor — especially one who has presided over rising crime rates, worsening affordability, and declining quality of life.
The dissatisfaction is so widespread that even many Democrats privately admit the state is struggling under decades of progressive rule.
Poll Details for Context
The Siena Poll surveyed 802 registered New York voters between Nov. 10–12.
Respondents were contacted by phone. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.