President Donald Trump is beginning the new year with unexpected movement in the polls, as middle-class voters show signs of returning after months of declining approval.
New survey data suggests Trump’s approval rating among Americans earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year—a group often described as the economic backbone of the country—has rebounded sharply from its late-December low.
A Key Voting Bloc Starts To Shift
Political analysts closely track middle-class voters because their opinions often reflect real-world economic pressure: grocery prices, housing costs, retirement savings, and job security.
After weeks of stagnant or negative numbers, early January polling shows Trump regaining ground with this crucial demographic—raising fresh questions about where the political landscape may be headed ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
According to a YouGov survey conducted for The Economist between January 2 and January 5, 46 percent of middle-class respondents approve of Trump’s job performance, while 52 percent disapprove. The poll surveyed 1,551 U.S. adults and carries a margin of error of roughly three percentage points.
Just weeks earlier, approval among the same income group had dropped to 40 percent, with disapproval climbing as high as 57 percent.
From December Slump To January Rebound
The turnaround marks a noticeable break from the trend seen late last year.
In October, Trump’s approval among middle-class voters stood at 43 percent. November showed little improvement. By late December, his net approval had fallen to its lowest point of the year—fueling media speculation about voter fatigue and economic frustration.
The new January numbers suggest some voters may be reassessing, particularly as inflation shows signs of stabilizing and border enforcement remains a top national issue.
National Approval Still Challenging
Despite the improvement among middle-income Americans, Trump’s overall national approval rating remains underwater, though there are hints of modest progress.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found Trump’s nationwide approval at 42 percent, up from 39 percent in December. Another December poll from InsiderAdvantage showed Trump with a net positive approval among likely voters, highlighting the gap between general polling and election-focused samples.
Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and Ballotpedia continue to show more Americans disapproving than approving overall, but recent movement has edged in a more favorable direction.
Decision Desk HQ analyst Scott Tranter described Trump’s position as steady, noting that his numbers have remained relatively consistent throughout the year.
Economy Still Drives Voter Sentiment
Economic issues remain the dominant factor shaping public opinion.
A December PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, reflecting lingering concerns about affordability, medical costs, and retirement security—issues that resonate strongly with older voters.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said the administration is focused on reversing what it calls the economic fallout from the Biden years, emphasizing that restoring strong wage growth, stable prices, and job creation remains a top priority.
Trump Pushes Back On Polling Narratives
Trump has repeatedly questioned the accuracy of national polls. In a New Year’s post on Truth Social, the president argued that surveys underestimate public support and pointed to border security, inflation trends, military readiness, and economic growth as evidence his agenda is working.
What This Means For 2026
Republican strategists widely agree that Trump’s 2024 victory hinged on economic promises—particularly lowering inflation and strengthening household finances.
While many Americans still feel financial strain, the middle-class rebound in approval could offer Republicans a foothold heading into the 2026 midterms, especially if consumer confidence improves.
For now, one thing is clear: after months of erosion, Trump’s standing with middle-class voters is no longer moving in just one direction—and that alone is a surprise worth watching.
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