President Donald Trump is outperforming expectations in a state long considered a Democratic fortress. According to a new Emerson College poll, Trump is now more popular in New Jersey than Joe Biden was at the same time last year—fueling hopes that Republicans could flip the Garden State in 2025.
The poll, conducted May 11–13 among 1,000 registered voters, shows 46.7% of New Jerseyans approve of Trump’s performance, with 47% disapproving—essentially a statistical tie. For a deep-blue state like New Jersey, those numbers are a political earthquake.
By contrast, in the spring of 2024, only 40% of New Jersey voters approved of Biden’s job performance. That glaring contrast highlights growing discontent with Democrat leadership, especially as voters face soaring inflation, failed immigration policies, and crime spikes in Democrat-run cities.
📊 Poll details: Emerson College survey, ±3% margin of error.
Trump’s rising numbers follow his surprisingly strong showing in the 2024 presidential election, when he finished within just 6 points of Kamala Harris—the best Republican performance in decades. Harris’ underwhelming win marked the weakest Democrat margin in New Jersey since the Reagan era.
Trump vs. Democrat Leaders: Who Do New Jersey Voters Trust?
Even Democrat Governor Phil Murphy is faring worse than Trump. The poll shows only 40.1% of voters approve of Murphy, while 44.7% disapprove. With Murphy term-limited, this year’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a showdown that could redefine New Jersey politics.
🗣️ James Freeman, Wall Street Journal: “Trump seems to have enhanced his competitive standing in the Garden State.”
Steven Fulop, the Democrat running to succeed Murphy, is already on the defensive. He admitted to Newsweek that, “The Democratic Party in New Jersey has been broken, and we need to rebuild.” That level of vulnerability from a top Democrat is rare—and revealing.
Trump Calls Out Media, Predicts Another Red Wave
President Trump isn’t holding back. In a Truth Social post, he blasted dishonest polling and biased coverage:
“They are negative criminals who apologize to their readers after I win elections big… and then go on cheating and lying for the next cycle.”
Trump’s aggressive stance continues to resonate with working-class voters, seniors, suburban families, and longtime Democrats who feel abandoned by the modern Left.
What’s Next for New Jersey?
With the June 10 primary fast approaching, and the general election on November 4, all eyes are now on whether the GOP can break through in the state for the first time in a generation.
The Cook Political Report currently labels the race as “Leans Democrat”, but polling trends suggest the contest is rapidly tightening.
🔴 Don’t be surprised if New Jersey becomes a 2025 political battleground.
Conservative momentum is building—and for the first time in years, the left’s grip on New Jersey looks weaker than ever.