President Donald Trump is facing a new round of political headwinds after recent polling data revealed a notable drop in his approval rating — a development that could have major implications for the 2026 midterm elections.
According to a new YouGov survey conducted July 9–13, Trump’s net approval rating has slipped to -17, down from -11 in the previous poll. The survey sampled 2,104 adults and carries a margin of error of ±2.8%.
“This drop is more than just numbers—it’s a warning shot to the GOP base,” said one political analyst.
The backlash appears tied to growing conservative frustration over the Justice Department’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. The Trump administration had pledged transparency, promising to expose Epstein’s powerful network of associates tied to elite political and corporate circles. But a recent DOJ and FBI memo stunned many: there will be no client list, and no further charges will be filed.
That announcement has left many Trump supporters wondering what changed—and whether deeper forces are working behind the scenes to bury the truth.
Conservative Base Feels Betrayed Over Epstein Case
For years, many in the America First movement believed Trump would be the leader to fully expose the Epstein scandal. From secret flights to shady deals, the case has symbolized elite corruption, media complicity, and two-tiered justice.
“MAGA voters don’t believe Trump was involved,” said political expert Mark Shanahan, “but they did believe he would release everything. That hasn’t happened—and it’s shaking some confidence in his leadership.”
This lack of follow-through has opened the door to media narratives and Democrat attacks, both of which seek to erode trust among Trump’s core voters just as the 2026 midterms approach.
Economic Pressure Also Playing a Role
Another undercurrent in the polling drop: concerns over tariffs and rising costs.
While Trump’s “America First” trade policies remain popular in principle, some voters are feeling the squeeze at the checkout counter. With imported goods becoming more expensive and fewer domestic alternatives readily available, inflation, higher grocery bills, and supply chain issues are re-emerging as kitchen-table concerns.
“America First is a great slogan,” one voter said, “but if I can’t afford basic goods, that’s a problem.”
But There’s Still Strong Conservative Support
Despite the drop in general approval, Trump remains the dominant figure among conservatives. A separate YouGov/Economist poll shows him with a +80 approval rating from right-leaning voters—matching the peak of his second term.
This means the foundation of his support is still rock-solid. But that doesn’t mean it’s unshakable.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
As the November 2026 elections draw closer, Trump’s next moves will be critical. Whether it’s releasing the full Epstein files, tackling inflation, or refocusing on DOJ transparency, the conservative base wants results—not more broken promises.
With legacy media outlets pushing negative narratives and Big Tech throttling independent voices, Trump’s political machine must re-engage the movement with action, not just words.
The Republican Party’s performance in 2026 may depend on how well Trump can reignite confidence, deliver truth, and remind Americans why the Swamp fears him.