Recent polling data has revealed an interesting shift in the presidential race, showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump. According to a recent survey conducted by Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication, Public Opinion Research Lab, and Mainstreet Research USA, Harris currently leads Trump by 47 percent to 43 percent on a national scale.
This poll, conducted just after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, indicates that Harris’s support among likely voters is even more substantial, with her leading Trump 49 percent to 45 percent. This shift seems to reflect a successful boost from the convention.
The survey highlights a noticeable gender gap in voter preferences, with 53 percent of women supporting Harris compared to 45 percent of men. Conversely, Trump garners 47 percent of support from men and 41 percent from women. Harris also shows a strong lead among minority groups, capturing 51 percent of Hispanic voters, 73 percent of Black voters, and 57 percent of white voters with college degrees. However, Trump retains significant support from white voters without a college degree, with 59 percent favoring him.
Luzmarina Garcia, an assistant professor of political science at FAU, pointed out that Harris’s recent elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket has been effective in rallying women voters and strengthening the party’s position among minority groups.
Additionally, Harris holds a commanding lead among independent voters, with 48 percent backing her compared to Trump’s 35 percent. This is a notable improvement from previous polls, where the gap between the two candidates was much narrower. Dukhong Kim, an associate professor of political science at FAU, suggested that Trump’s decline in independent support since July could be attributed to the Democratic convention’s impact and noted that if this trend continues, Trump might face challenges in maintaining a competitive edge.
The poll, which surveyed 929 registered voters from August 23-25, carries a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. This data will be crucial for both campaigns as they strategize for the upcoming election.