Trump Losing House Control?

House Speaker Mike Johnson is heading into a critical stretch as House Republicans return from winter recess facing visible internal strain — a situation that could complicate President Trump’s legislative agenda in an election year.

With one of the smallest majorities in modern congressional history, Johnson must navigate growing restlessness among centrist Republicans who are signaling they may no longer quietly fall in line on issues such as health care, foreign policy, and trade.

Thin Majority, Rising Defiance

Johnson’s challenge is structural as much as political. A razor-thin GOP margin leaves little room for dissent, yet several moderate lawmakers — particularly those retiring or facing competitive districts — appear increasingly willing to break with leadership to demonstrate independence to voters back home.

That tension has now spilled into open procedural warfare, with Republicans joining Democrats on rare discharge petitions designed to bypass leadership and force votes on controversial legislation.

Health Care Dispute Sparks Open Revolt

The most immediate flashpoint involves the expiration of Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies on December 31, a move that has already driven premiums higher for millions of Americans.

After GOP leadership declined to bring an extension to the House floor, several Republicans crossed party lines to support a Democratic-led discharge petition that would compel a vote early this year.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, publicly defended the move, arguing that congressional inaction would only worsen affordability concerns for middle-class families.

President Trump has taken a cautious stance, signaling skepticism about extending the subsidies while also expressing interest in broader health-care cost reforms and discussions with insurance executives to lower consumer prices without expanding government dependency.

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie suggested that many Republicans could support a narrowly tailored extension if paired with long-term structural reforms, but noted leadership has yet to allow such a compromise to reach the floor.

Foreign Policy Adds Another Pressure Point

Health care is not the only issue testing party unity. In December, Fitzpatrick joined forces with Rep. Gregory Meeks to introduce legislation targeting senior Russian officials with expanded sanctions and financial restrictions.

Retiring Rep. Don Bacon has indicated he would immediately back a discharge petition if leadership blocks the measure, arguing Congress has been too hesitant to assert itself on global security issues.

While discharge petitions rarely succeed, their growing use reflects a broader shift: lawmakers increasingly willing to challenge leadership rather than defer to closed-door negotiations.

Tariffs and the Economy Fuel Further Friction

Trade policy is emerging as yet another fault line. Some Republicans warn that tariffs are acting as a drag on economic growth and have criticized House leadership for sidelining legislation aimed at reasserting congressional oversight.

Lawmakers concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty argue that prolonged inaction could carry political consequences, particularly with voters already anxious about household costs.

Johnson Projects Confidence

Despite the internal pressure, Johnson has rejected claims that his grip on the House is weakening. He has emphasized that governing with such a narrow majority naturally produces procedural conflicts and unusual votes.

In a recent opinion piece published by The Wall Street Journal, Johnson highlighted Republican legislative achievements and argued that voters will soon see tangible results from what he described as disciplined, common-sense governance.

A Test Year for House Republicans

Still, as the election year accelerates, the combination of health care disputes, foreign policy disagreements, and economic anxiety may determine whether House Republicans can maintain unity — or whether internal fractures grow large enough to reshape control of the chamber.

For Speaker Johnson and President Trump, the coming months may prove decisive not only for legislation, but for the party’s ability to govern with a divided conference under intense public scrutiny.