According to a recent Roanoke College poll, Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a slim three-point edge over former President Donald Trump in Virginia. The survey, released Tuesday, shows Harris leading with 47% support among likely voters, while Trump trails slightly behind with 44%. This margin remains consistent even when additional candidates, such as independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, are factored into the equation.
In a hypothetical two-way matchup, approximately 8% of voters indicated they would prefer a different candidate rather than choosing between Harris and Trump. However, in a broader six-way race, this number rises to 13%, with 6% leaning towards Kennedy and 2% towards West.
Interestingly, the poll also examined the impact of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Prior to Biden’s exit, the poll had shown Trump with a 6-point lead over Biden. Specifically, 43% of voters supported Trump, 37% backed Biden, and 8% showed preference for Kennedy, with only 3% undecided in a Biden-Trump matchup.
Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, remarked that while Harris’ position is better than Biden’s was, her lead remains within the margin of error. “The shift from Biden to Harris has made some impact in Virginia, but it’s not as significant as one might expect,” Wilson noted.
Nationally, polls have similarly reflected a competitive race between Harris and Trump. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows Harris with a narrow 3-point lead, holding 49.4% to Trump’s 46.4%.
The Roanoke College poll was conducted from August 12-16, surveying 691 likely voters in Virginia. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.