A new poll from the Manhattan Institute indicates a notable change in Jewish voter support for the 2024 election, suggesting that backing for the Democratic presidential candidate could reach its lowest level since the Reagan era. If the election were held today, Vice President Kamala Harris would earn the support of just 67% of Jewish voters, while former President Donald Trump would secure 31%.
Traditionally, Jewish voters have shown strong allegiance to the Democratic Party, but this trend has declined over the years. In 1992, an impressive 80% of Jewish voters chose Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush. However, this support has gradually waned, with Joe Biden receiving 68% of the Jewish vote in 2020 and Hillary Clinton attracting 71% in 2016, compared to Trump’s 30% and 24%, respectively.
The recent poll reflects a broader shift, especially following the October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, which have prompted many Jewish voters to reassess their political affiliations. While Jewish voters have historically leaned Democratic on a variety of issues, there is a growing consensus regarding concerns about Israel. An overwhelming 86% of respondents expressed strong support for the Jewish state, and 62% voiced apprehensions about rising antisemitism within the Democratic Party.
The poll identified “security, Israel, and antisemitism” as critical issues where Harris lags behind Trump among Jewish voters. Jesse Arm, Chief of Staff at the Manhattan Institute, noted that the Democratic Party’s acceptance of extreme criticisms of Israel, including labeling it “genocidal,” could be influencing this shift in support.
Support for Harris is primarily found among Reform and unaffiliated Jews, who often align with progressive causes. Interestingly, one-third of Jewish respondents cited abortion as their top concern for the 2024 election, contrasting sharply with the broader American electorate, which tends to prioritize economic issues.
Conducted from October 5 to 9, the poll surveyed 658 Jewish voters across the country, highlighting the shifting political landscape as we approach the election. This change presents Republicans with an opportunity to engage with and address the evolving concerns of this key demographic.