Arizona’s Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs is on shaky ground as new polling shows her trailing or tied with Trump-backed Republicans in the high-stakes 2026 Arizona governor’s race.
Hobbs’ Slim Lead Vanishes in New Arizona Poll
According to Noble Predictive Insights, Hobbs barely edges out her potential GOP challengers. Against attorney and conservative businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, Hobbs sits at 40 percent while Robson pulls 38 percent, with a massive 19 percent of Arizona voters undecided.
If the Republican candidate is Rep. Andy Biggs, Hobbs falls to just 39 percent against his 37 percent. Once again, nearly one in five voters remain undecided, signaling a wide-open race.
Trump’s Endorsement Shakes Up Arizona Politics
President Donald Trump, who won Arizona in 2024 with 52.2 percent of the vote, has made it clear: both Robson and Biggs have his backing.
“It is my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump declared on Truth Social.
That dual Trump endorsement ensures Arizona conservatives will rally around the eventual GOP nominee, putting Hobbs’ reelection chances in serious jeopardy.
Katie Hobbs: The Weakest Governor in America?
Hobbs narrowly won in 2022 by just 0.6 percent over Trump ally Kari Lake. Since then, critics argue Hobbs has been a radical, unpopular governor whose policies do not reflect Arizona’s America-First values.
Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics warned: “Katie Hobbs is the most vulnerable incumbent governor in America.”
Even Democrats admit her approval numbers are weak — she has hovered around just 39 to 40 percent support, a dangerous sign for any incumbent heading into a tough race.
GOP Momentum Building Ahead of 2026 Election
For Republicans, Arizona represents more than just another governor’s race. It’s a chance to flip a major swing state red, deal Democrats a crushing blow, and strengthen Trump’s America-First movement heading into 2026 and beyond.
With Arizona voters frustrated by Hobbs’ leadership and Trump’s influence growing stronger, the momentum is clearly with the GOP.
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026 — and with undecided voters dwarfing Hobbs’ razor-thin lead, Arizona may soon fall back into Republican hands.