Following a turbulent debate performance and escalating calls for his resignation, President Biden has made significant strides in narrowing Donald Trump’s lead across crucial swing states, according to a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
Published on Saturday, the poll indicates that Biden now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, while in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump’s advantage is within the survey’s margin of error. Overall, Trump holds a slight edge of 47% to Biden’s 45% across these seven states, marking the closest Biden has come to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg began tracking these states last October.
One notable shift highlighted by the poll is Biden’s improved standing among independent voters, with both candidates now tied at 40%. Previously, Trump held a stronger position with 44% compared to Biden’s 36%.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s home state and a crucial battleground, Trump leads with 51% support from voters compared to Biden’s 44%, indicating a wider gap than in other states surveyed.
The poll, the first conducted after the June 28 debate moderated by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, reflects concerns among Democrats about Biden’s debate performance. Despite criticisms of Biden’s delivery and voice, which some perceived as lackluster, the poll suggests that these concerns have not drastically altered the electoral landscape.
Morning Consult’s US political consultant Eli Yokley noted that while the debate raised alarms among Democratic leaders, subsequent surveys in swing states show minimal change in the fundamental dynamics of the race.
Interestingly, respondents generally viewed Trump as having performed better in the debate, with over half declaring him the winner compared to only 13% favoring Biden. A smaller fraction believed Biden demonstrated greater coherence, mental fitness, or dominance.
The Bloomberg poll diverges from recent national surveys such as the NY Times/Siena university poll, which depicted a widening gap in favor of Trump post-debate. Other polls like the Wall Street Journal’s also indicated Trump maintaining a lead over Biden.
Since the debate, there has been a growing chorus within the Democratic Party urging Biden to step aside as the nominee, though opinions are divided. Approximately 40% of those surveyed believe Biden should continue his campaign, while 55% think he should withdraw. Among likely Democratic voters, about 30% advocate for Biden’s withdrawal.
Regarding potential replacements, Vice President Harris garnered the most support with 42% in favor of her taking over from Biden. However, a majority of voters expressed opposition to such a move. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer also received significant consideration as replacements.
Conversely, a majority of respondents from both parties believe Trump should continue his campaign, with less than 10% of Republicans supporting his withdrawal.
Despite these pressures, Biden has reiterated his intention to remain in the race. The poll coincides with recent developments in Trump’s legal troubles, including his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money case in New York. This backdrop has heightened perceptions of Trump’s potential danger among voters, with 62% now viewing him as a threat, up from 59% earlier this year.
Conducted from July 1-5, the Bloomberg/Morning poll asked almost 5,000 registered voters across the seven swing states, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.